By the Numbers: How North Haven Moved the Needle in 2026
I have a confession: I love a good spreadsheet.
But this year's election gave me something even better. It gave me the opportunity to see what happens when neighbors organize, candidates show up, volunteers give their time, and voters make their voices heard.
And because so many of you have asked how it all happened, I did what any reasonable data nerd would do. I opened the spreadsheets.
Fair warning: it gets nerdy.
259 votes. Five towns. One extraordinary election.
As of November 9, with all 25 precincts reporting, the Connecticut Secretary of the State's completed, unofficial returns show Brandi Mandato ahead of incumbent State Senator Paul Cicarella by 259 votes.
Brandi Mandato: 19,549 votes (50.3%)
Paul Cicarella: 19,290 votes (49.7%)
Difference: 259 votes
For my fellow data enthusiasts, those totals include votes cast on multiple ballot lines. Brandi received 18,508 votes on the Democratic line and another 1,041 on the Working Families line. Senator Cicarella received 18,458 Republican-line votes and 832 Independent Party-line votes.
That's a margin of approximately 0.67% across nearly 39,000 votes.
The returns are complete, although official certification is still expected in December.
We're celebrating this remarkable result. But I also think it's worth understanding what happened, because the story goes well beyond a single number.
The district: a 7.4-point change in two years
In 2024, the Democratic candidate in Senate District 34 received 42.9% of the vote and lost by 6,897 votes.
In 2026, Brandi received 50.3%.
That's an increase of 7.4 percentage points in Democratic vote share.
And every town in the district contributed to a narrowing of the previous Republican advantage.
Town | Democratic share, 2024 | Democratic share, 2026 | Change in Democratic vote margin |
Wallingford | 45.9% | 53.3% | +2,908 |
North Haven | 40.6% | 47.9% | +2,100 |
East Haven | 40.8% | 47.4% | +1,403 |
North Branford | 35.5% | 43.0% | +297 |
Durham | 38.0% | 43.8% | +214 |
These town-level comparisons come from our election-night tracker. They are preliminary and have not yet been reconciled with the updated November 9 statewide reporting totals.
Wallingford was the only town Brandi carried outright. But the other four towns substantially reduced the margins that had separated the candidates in 2024.
North Haven recorded the second-largest change in vote margin, behind only Wallingford.
Now, an important caveat: 2024 was a presidential election, and 2026 was a midterm election. Turnout was different, and different voters participated. A change in the margin doesn't necessarily mean that thousands of individual voters switched parties. It reflects some combination of voter choices, turnout, and participation.
The election returns tell us what happened. Understanding exactly why takes more work.
Still, the change is significant.
North Haven: the gaps narrowed considerably
Here at home, two races were particular priorities for our committee: State Senate District 34 and State Representative District 87.
Both saw substantial changes compared with 2024.
Race | Republican lead in 2024 | Republican lead in 2026 | Reduction in lead |
State Senate | 2,572 votes | About 500 votes | 81% |
State Representative | 5,610 votes | 2,276 votes | 59% |
These comparisons use our local election-night figures.
And there's another story worth telling here.
Dr. Kathleen Kimball did not win her race for State Representative. But she received 39.6% of the vote, compared with the Democratic candidate's 30.7% in 2024. That's an increase of nearly nine percentage points.
According to our review of Connecticut election history, it's the strongest Democratic showing against the incumbent since he first won the seat in 2010.
I want to recognize what that represents beyond the numbers. Kathleen stepped forward, knocked on doors, listened to neighbors, attended community events, and took on a difficult race. She gave residents an opportunity to have thoughtful conversations about affordability, education, healthcare, and the future of our town. This woman rolled up her sleeves and got to work, and my gut says we will all be better off for her efforts in the coming legislative session. That matters, regardless of the election result.
Early voting changed the picture
If there's one chart I hope people spend a little time with, it's this one.
According to our North Haven election-night tracker, Brandi's vote margin looked very different depending on when people cast their ballots.
Voting method | Brandi's margin |
Election Day voting | −1,288 |
Absentee voting | +97 |
Early voting | +691 |
Total in North Haven | −500 |
These are the tracker figures and may be adjusted during reconciliation. The difference is striking.
Brandi received approximately 41% of her North Haven votes before Election Day. Her opponent received approximately 23% of his votes before Election Day.
Early voting also wasn't a phenomenon limited to one race. Democratic candidates across the ballot generally performed strongly among early voters.
Our committee made early voting a major focus of outreach.
We sent approximately 2,300 early-voting text messages during the October 18–31 period, followed by another 1,100 get-out-the-vote messages on November 2.
These were practical reminders about dates, locations, and making a voting plan.
Did those text messages cause the early-voting results? We can't prove that from this data, and I don't want to claim that we can… correlations does not equal causation, after all, but this is worth noting.
People vote early for all kinds of reasons, and voters who choose to vote early may differ from those who prefer Election Day.
But the returns show clearly that early voting was an important component of this election. And that's information we'll carry into future planning.
North Haven isn't a straight-ticket town
One of the things I appreciate about looking at our local results is how much variation there is across the ballot.
North Haven voters don't simply make the same choice in every race.
Among the eight contested races in our analysis, Democratic candidates carried four and Republican candidates carried four.
Race | Democratic candidate | Democratic vote share | North Haven result |
Comptroller | Sean Scanlon | 52.8% | Won by 620 |
Attorney General | William Tong | 52.7% | Won by 582 |
Secretary of the State | Stephanie Thomas | 51.7% | Won by 364 |
Congress | Rosa DeLauro | 49.4% | Won by 154 |
Treasurer | Erick Russell | 48.9% | Lost by 227 |
Governor | Ned Lamont | 48.4% | Lost by 337 |
State Senate | Brandi Mandato | 47.7% | Lost town by 500; led district |
State Representative | Kathleen Kimball | 39.6% | Lost by 2,276 |
Figures are from the North Haven Election Night Tracker. The congressional race included an independent candidate. The Registrar of Voters election is separate from this comparison; both Jim Carew and Jennifer Massini Vanacore were elected and we thank them both for running a tight ship for elections.
There's roughly a 13-point difference between the Democratic vote share in the strongest and weakest races in this table.
That variation is worth studying. It reminds us that North Haven voters consider individual candidates and offices differently. Political party matters to many people, but it isn't the only consideration. And it means we have more listening and learning to do.
A closer look at the neighborhoods
Ridge Road's District 3 polling place was the only Election Day location carried by Democratic candidates in nearly every race we tracked, with State Representative being the exception.
Montowese and Clintonville showed different voting patterns. Together, those two Election Day polling places produced a combined 920-vote deficit for Brandi.
I don't see that as a reason to write off neighborhoods or assume we know what their residents think. Quite the opposite. These results give us questions to ask, conversations to have, and an opportunity to better understand the priorities of people throughout North Haven. Because every neighborhood matters.
Beyond the ballot box: how the conversation grew
The election results are one part of the story. Another is the extraordinary amount of work that went into reaching neighbors and creating opportunities for discussion.
Here's a snapshot of what our committee tracked during 2026.
Channel | Activity |
Letters to the editor | 28 supporter letters published in six issues of the Quad Town Advisor |
Approximately 1.29 million page views and 99,630 engagements, year to date | |
Website | Approximately 4,500 active users, including 4,300 new users |
Facebook advertising | Approximately 253,000 impressions during the final early-voting push |
Streaming television | 47,856 reported impressions for candidate spots |
Text messaging | Approximately 3,400 messages across the early-voting and final GOTV efforts |
Print advertising | Half-page ads distributed through the Quad Town Advisor |
Signs | 12 large roadside signs, along with lawn signs around town |
A quick data-nerd clarification: these are different kinds of measurements.
A Facebook view is not necessarily a unique person. One person can see multiple posts, and advertising impressions are not the same as individual voters reached.
Similarly, website visitors, text messages, and newspaper circulation cannot be added together into one giant audience number.
What the data does show is that we were active across a wide range of channels, connecting with residents in different ways.
And some of the patterns were genuinely interesting.
Twenty-eight letters, and some recurring themes
One of my favorite parts of the campaign was seeing so many neighbors write thoughtful letters to the editor.
Across the 28 letters in our campaign log:
22 discussed schools or state education funding.
20 addressed affordability, taxes, or utility costs.
These were supporter letters, not a representative survey of the electorate. But they show what the people who chose to write about this election wanted to emphasize.
There were letters about working families and seniors. Letters about education funding.
Letters about community, character, accountability, and public service. Some writers had been involved in local politics for years. Others were adding their voices to the conversation in a new way.
And on October 20, the Quad Town Advisor published 11 of those letters in a single issue, just after early voting began. That was quite a moment.
Digital engagement grew, too
Our Facebook page recorded approximately 1.29 million views between January 1 and November 5, an increase of 244% compared with the prior reporting period.
Our website recorded approximately 4,500 active users from January 1 through November 6.
About 932 of those website users came through Facebook referrals, roughly one in five.
The Voting page was the third most visited page on our website, and interest in the site increased in the days leading up to Election Day.
Those numbers tell me people were looking for information, following the conversation, and taking the time to learn more.
They don't tell us exactly how anyone voted, but they're valuable measures of community engagement. And behind those numbers were real people making real efforts to connect.
What the spreadsheets can't tell us
As much as I love data, I think it's important to acknowledge its limitations.
A spreadsheet cannot tell us what someone was thinking when they entered the voting booth.
It cannot tell us whether a conversation at the North Haven Fair changed someone's mind.
It cannot tell us whether a postcard arrived on exactly the right day, or whether a thoughtful letter prompted someone to look more closely at a candidate.
And it certainly cannot capture everything our volunteers contributed.
It doesn't show the person who squeezed in phone calls after work.
Or the volunteer who spent a Saturday knocking on doors.
Or the neighbor who hosted a lawn sign, answered questions, attended a meet and greet, or simply reminded a friend that early voting had started.
That's the part of the election I don't want us to lose sight of.
Thank you, North Haven
Congratulations to Brandi Mandato on the result reported in the completed, unofficial returns, and to the candidates who won their other races.
Congratulations to Governor Ned Lamont, Lieutenant Governor Susan Bysiewicz, all the Constitutional winners, Congresswoman Rosa DeLauro, and Registrar of Voters Jim Carew.
Thank you to Dr. Kathleen Kimball for her thoughtful, determined campaign and her willingness to step forward in service to this community. We have been truly impressed by her and cannot wait to see what she does next.
And thank you to Senator Paul Cicarella for his service to North Haven and the 34th District.
To our neighbors who supported other candidates, thank you for participating, too. We won't always agree about candidates or policies, but we share a town, and we all have a stake in its future.
Most of all, thank you to everyone who knocked on a door, made a phone call, sent a text, wrote a letter, put up a sign, hosted an event, donated, or had a conversation with a neighbor.
There is so much more to an election than the final tally.
The spreadsheets help us understand what happened. But the people are the reason any of it matters.
Every number in this post started with one of you.
Thank you, North Haven!
And to anyone who's interested in being part of the next chapter, our next North Haven Democratic Town Committee membership meeting is Tuesday, November 10. We'd love to see you there.
About the data
This analysis uses completed, unofficial results displayed by the Connecticut Secretary of the State on November 9, 2026, along with Connecticut election history and the North Haven Democratic Town Committee's election-night tracker.
Town-level and voting-method figures are from the committee tracker and may change when reconciled with the updated state returns. Official certification is expected in December.
Comparisons between 2024 and 2026 should be interpreted with care because they involve elections with different turnout patterns. Shifts in vote share or margins cannot, by themselves, establish how individual voters changed their preferences.
Communications figures come from campaign records, the Quad Town Advisor, Meta Business Dashboard, Google Analytics, and platform reporting. Views, impressions, and visitors are distinct metrics and should not be interpreted as equivalent or unique people reached.
Amanda Gabriele serves as Elections Committee Chair of the North Haven Democratic Town Committee.
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